Risk and Reward TV

In this episode

1:12 The Rear View Mirror -

Nobody really thinks the Greek situation is resolved. Many analysts are already talking about the next Greek bailout. They bought some time getting this done, but a real solution will require more than this.

Also, Spain pushes it’s own agenda, and some people in Germany are pushing for stimulus and growth, opposing the hardline of Chancellor Merkel.

Take away: Don’t confuse delay tactics as solutions. Solutions can come after some lengthy delay, but no matter how lengthy the delay, until there is a real solution, the problem still exists. Europe is buying time, but the better question is where are you buying time?

6:29 The Foggy Windshield -

There’s lots of talk about military action in Iran. The US is sending an aircraft carrier, there is a US Presidential election coming up, China’s oil reserves are rising rapidly as is the price of oil and gas at the pump.

It could be posturing and pressure, or it could be real. The most likely time to take action is before the US election where it will be very difficult not to support Israel’s actions. Even thought this isn’t extremely likely, it’s the kind of foggy windshield item that we can’t take our eyes off of because the consequences would be significant.

Take away: The trouble with the foggy windshield is that you keep seeing turns in the road that you have to avoid so you don’t drive off a cliff. It’s often not clear how hard the turn is when it first appears. Some are sharper than others, so that’s why you drive carefully.

13:43 Critical Thinking -

Black and white issues, those with a binary outcome, can be very difficult because there is no room to negotiate. Either Iran has nukes or not. Either you buy the stock or you don’t. Either you sell, or you don’t.

But to get through those difficult decisions, try to change them so they aren’t so black and white. Try to invent a new option that can allow for mutual gain. Also, work through all the issues so your just left with one on the table.

Take away: When facing a black and white issue that you really want to resolve, try to broaden the situation to more issues so both sides can feel like they won some and lost some. People with nothing to gain and everything to lose rarely give in.

17:00 Quiz -

Last week’s questions:Why would you ask for unreasonable demands?

• What happens when something can’t continue?
• What happens when something can’t continue?
• Price, quality or service, which do you pick?
• What advice would you give a 25 year old just starting out?

This week’s questions:

• Is Greece out of the woods?
• What the trouble with the foggy windshield?
• Where are you just buying time?
• What should you do when you feel overwhelmed?

19:09 Viewer Mail – Send your questions in directly to Doug@riskandrewardtv.org

Ralph in Atlanta writes, “I’m working hard and trying to be smart, but sometimes it’s overwhelming. It just seems too hard to get ahead and I always feel like I’m falling behind. I doubt I am the only one. Any suggestions on what to do?”

Here’s a couple of things to consider:

24:00 Upcoming events and wrap up -

If you would like to host my seminar or have me speak, email doug@riskandrewardtv.org.

What’s for dinner?

Basil, tomato phyllo pockets, broccli soup, fillet mignon and roasted potatoes, panna cotta with candied hazelnuts.

Until next week remember:

It’s your money. You’re taking the risk. Take smart risks.

In this episode

1:23 The Rear View Mirror -

The ECB lends another 529.5 to banks, and then Greece gets told that they didn’t meet the qualifications for their bailout. Only the banks will receive funds unless they can meet the demands by the fast approaching deadline.

Also, Greek GDP fell almost 7% last quarter and unemployment in Spain tops 23% overall and over 50% for those under 25 years old.

Take away: The european debt crisis is like a crap game. The first time they roll snake eyes, the game is over and everyone loses. Just like gambling, the only way to win in the long run is not to play. Too bad they don’t have that option.

5:27 The Foggy Windshield -

It’s possible we have seen the recovery and the next leg could be down. At least that the forecast by a noted economist.

Rear view mirror data makes us feel like things are doing well, but if we rely only on it and lose focus on the foggy windshield, if there is a turn in road, we’ll drive off a cliff.

Take away: To see if you are falling into the trap of driving your life looking in the rear view mirror, ask yourself what you look for when making a decision. If it’s just a continuation of yesterdays events, then it’s pretty easy to see that you’ll drive off a cliff the first time the road turns.

8:24 Critical Thinking -

Study’s show forecasts are mostly wrong, but we can still learn from them. It’s not about be exactly correct every time. Think about these aspects to gain an view of the

1. Look at the trend, not any one data point.
2. Look at who’s forecast it is and their track record.
3. If it changed, always ask why did they change it.
4. Frequency matters. How often is it updated?
5. Most importantly, ask them what does the other side get wrong.

Take away: When someone has a point of view, ask them what the other side gets wrong. Then analyze their answer to see if they really have something or are off base. If they don’t understand the other side of the argument, they don’t know enough for their opinion to be of much use.

13:04 Quiz -

Last week’s questions:

• Why would you ask for unreasonable demands?
• What happens when something can’t continue?
• Price, quality or service, which do you pick?
• What advice would you give a 25 year old just starting out?

This week’s questions:

• Can you win at gambling?
• How do you know if your looking in the rear view mirror?
• What question do you ask someone that professes a position?
• What did you learn from Warren Buffett’s annual report?

16:27 Viewer Mail – Send your questions in directly to Doug@riskandrewardtv.org

Jim from New York writes, “I hear a lot of talk about Warren Buffett’s annual report. But almost no one owns his stock, so why does the media talk more about it than, say, Apple’s annual report?”

Here’s why:

19:29 Upcoming events and wrap up -

If you would like to host my seminar or have me speak, email doug@riskandrewardtv.org.

What’s for dinner?

Broccoli soup, crab louie, sturgeon with swiss chard and Israeli couscous, and cinnamon bread pudding.

Until next week remember:

It’s your money. You’re taking the risk. Take smart risks.

In this episode

1:23 The Rear View Mirror -

Negative interest rates hit the TIPS market and Goldman Sachs sold 50 year bonds.

Take away: Always notice abnormal conditions and think through what it means. It’s a pretty strong signal the market has “jumped the shark” and a reversal is likely at some point. Speaking of sharks, remember if you do business with them, they bite.

5:27 The Foggy Windshield -

It’s very likely we’re in a liquidity trap and while the Fed’s QE2 money injection could have some minor impact, it’s not a panacea and could do more harm than good.

Here’s the article from the FT

Take away: We’re at a crossroads that we haven’t been at before. We really don’t know if the monetary stimulus that the Fed is contemplating will work. Act accordingly.

8:24 Critical Thinking -

Manipulation is rampant as others seek to influence you to their benefit and often to your detriment.

A study of organ donations from different countries showed the significant impact simply asking a question differently can have. Results showed that the reason some countries donated a lot and others didn’t depended if the citizens were asked to opt in to the donor program or opt out.

To see if you are being manipulated by the question, rephrase the question to see what you really think about the issue. For example, instead of, “Do you want to opt into the organ donor program?”, rephrase it to, “What do I think about donating my organs if I die?” Then your answer won’t be influenced by the question asking about opt in or opt out.

Take away: To critically think about questions of importance, rephrase the questions in different way and see if your answer changes.

13:04 Quiz -

Last week’s questions:

• What should be doing when others are talking?
• When we can’t control the outcome of something, what should we do?
• What are three examples in you life where actions had unintended consequences and what could you have done about them?
• Does a buy and hold investment strategy work?

This week’s questions:

• How does a negative interest rate bond work?
• What is a liquidity trap?
• What should you do if you feel your being manipulated?
• If given a choice between five model portfolio’s, what should you do?

16:27 Viewer Mail – Send your questions in directly to Doug@riskandrewardtv.org

“My broker had me fill out a questionnaire and then suggested a portfolio for me. It was pretty easy. What am I missing?”

Simplicity doesn’t always lead to performance. Typically financial firms try to fit clients into pre-assigned buckets so they can standardize the processing. Critical thinkers would ask things like, “Is it possible there are more investing choices than this that would be  better?” or “What’s in each bucket” Think if a wider and deeper selection would fit you better as you consider the limited options they offer.

Take Away: If you are being handled in a standardized way, you’re just a number. That’s okay at if you are at the car wash, but when you’re talking about your financial future you probably want more than being thrown in a bucket.

19:29 Upcoming events and wrap up -

If you would like to host my seminar or have me speak at an event, email doug@riskandrewardtv.org.

What’s for dinner?

Shrimp soup, chicken cordon bleu with wilted greens, and a fruit compote with buttermilk ice cream.

Until next week remember:

It’s your money. You’re taking the risk. Take smart risks.

In this episode

1:23 The Rear View Mirror -

Treasury Sec. Geithner says “It is very important for people to understand that the United States of America and no country around the world can devalue its way to prosperity and competitiveness,” he said. “It is not a viable, feasible strategy and we will not engage in it.”

Link to Article

But, of course, the Federal Reserve is hinting that they are going to increase the money supply, which would lower the value of the dollar.

Take away: Often people don’t say what they really mean or avoid providing all the facts. That makes it incumbent upon us listen without accepting what others are saying. Then, if what they are saying it matters, think through the situation to gage intent, bias, and try to determine what is really going on.

5:27 The Foggy Windshield -

It’s very likely the upcoming G20 meeting won’t actually accomplish anything and the QE2 will go forward, although incrementally slower than may have been previously anticipated. The result of which will be a lower dollar, but hopefully without without a shock and crash in the currency market.

Take away: Since we can’t control what happens, it crucial to consider the future consequences on ourselves and act accordingly.

8:24 Critical Thinking -

Intervention into a complex system often has unintended consequences. Our own financial lives are complex systems and our actions often have consequences we didn’t consider when we did them. For example, students loans to pay for advanced degrees come with the consequence of working in that field to be able to pay back the loan. Buying a home means losing flexibility with you job or potential employment in the future.

Take away: Decisions are easier in isolation, but not taking into account other factors can lead to poor outcomes. To try to avoid that, approach solutions in light of the overall situation, and construct a forecast of the larger picture given different potential outcomes.

13:04 Quiz -

Last week’s questions:

• What is the difference in U-3 vs. U-6?
• What would help the housing market most?
• How does hope enter into your financial strategy?
• Where should you start to pull your financial life together?

This week’s questions:

• What should be doing when others are talking?
• When we can’t control the outcome of something, what should we do?
• What are three examples in you life where actions had unintended consequences and what could you have done about them?
• Does a buy and hold investment strategy work?

16:27 Viewer Mail – Send your questions in directly to Doug@riskandrewardtv.org

“Does the buy and hold investment strategy work?”

It can for some time periods, but not for others. So in many cases it doesn’t work. For evidence of when it really didn’t work check out Japan from 1990 to today. For an example closer to home, the NASDAQ index is off by 50% from 10 years ago as well.

Take Away: All investment strategies have upside and downside and there is no one strategy that works all the time. Buy and hold is often better than trading, especially frequently, but it depends entirely on what you buy and how long you hold it.

19:29 Upcoming events and wrap up -

If you would like to host my seminar or have me speak at an event, email doug@riskandrewardtv.org.

What’s for dinner?

Rib eye steak with homemade pappardelle and a chanterelle mushroom sauce.

Until next week remember:

It’s your money. You’re taking the risk. Take smart risks.

In this episode

1:26 The Rear View Mirror -

Unemployment stays stagnant, but if we dig deeper we see that those without High School diploma’s (15.1%) are having a much tougher time than college graduates finding a job 4.4%)

Link to BLS data on U-3 vs. U-6

Link to BLS data on unemployment by education level.

Take away: Digging deeper into the numbers can provide clues to what’s actually going on and that perspective will help you make better decisions.

5:05 The Foggy Windshield -

Foreclosure scandal rocks banks. There are two issues. One is are banks handling the paperwork correctly. Two is did they mislead investors that purchased MBS by telling them the loans were less risky than they actually were.

Look for both of these events are likely to slow the foreclosure process going forward. Which isn’t good news as we need to through all the foreclosures and hit bottom before we can start a real recovery. These events prolong the agony.

Take away: Avoiding acute pain in favor of long term agony is usually a poor strategy. To move forward, rip the bandaid off quickly, and move on

8:45 Critical Thinking -

Is your thinking wishful or real? Many people think in wishful terms, ie. the world should be like this or that. But that can lead to making bad decisions. Focus on what’s probable and realistic.

Take away: Make decisions based on what is likely to actually happen, which may or may not be what you want to happen. Remember, hope is not a financial strategy.

14:08 Quiz -

Last week’s questions:

• What does Greenspan say would help the economic recovery?
• What’s one great reason for free trade and free markets?
• When will you know you’re wealthy?
• What is hindsight bias?

This week’s questions:

• What is the difference in U-3 vs. U-6?
• What would help the housing market most?
• How does hope enter into your financial strategy?
• Where should you start to pull your financial life together?

16:34 Viewer Mail – Send your questions in directly to Doug@riskandrewardtv.org

“Where should I start to pull my financial life together?”

Start with your personal financial statements. A balance sheet shows your net worth by adding up your assets and subtracting your liabilities. An income statement shows your cash flow by adding up your income and subtracting your expenses. Until you have both of those complete, you can’t move forward so start there.

Take Away: It might not feel good, but it’s better to know than not to know. Start with where you are financially right and construct your own personal financial statements.

20:30 Upcoming events and wrap up -

If you would like to host my seminar or have me speak at an event, email doug@riskandrewardtv.org.

What’s for dinner?

No dinner this week. Too much work! Next week…we’re going out.

In this episode

1:26 The Rear View Mirror -

Former Chairman of the Federal Reserve wrote an OpEd suggesting that if stocks prices rose, people would be more confident and that would get the economy going again.

Link to Greenspan Speaks

Take away: Consumer confidence is half of what it was in 1985 and fearful people don’t spend money. So Greenspan is right about confidence being key. But how to instill confidence is a different question.

5:05 The Foggy Windshield -

More currency fights looming. China’s Premier said, “Do not work to pressure us on the renminbi rate. Many of our exporting companies would have to close down, migrant workers would have to return to their villages. If China saw social and economic turbulence it would be a disaster for the world.” What’s more interesting is that he did so off the cuff, going off his prepared remarks.

Take away: There’s many reasons economists promote free markets, but one really good reason is that they stop wars.

8:45 Critical Thinking -

When are you wealthy? Many people think income is wealth, but money is stored work and some people that have a lot of income haven’t stored any of it. They aren’t wealthy. Wealth is your net worth, calculated as your assets minus your liabilities. If that number is low, even though your income is high, you’re not wealthy.

Take away: You’re wealthy when you have stored enough work you don’t have to work any more and you can still afford the lifestyle you desire. And you get wealthy storing work, not spending work.

14:08 Quiz -

Last week’s questions:

• If the money supply in increased what is the likely impact on the dollar?
• What would cause gold prices to fall?
• When someone wants you to like them, what do they tell you?
• How should you save for college?

This week’s questions:

• What does Greenspan say would help the economic recovery?
• What’s one great reason for free trade and free markets?
• When will you know you’re wealthy?
• What is hindsight bias?

16:34 Viewer Mail – Send your questions in directly to Doug@riskandrewardtv.org

“I never time the market right, but I constantly think to myself, ‘when I see things going up, I knew that was going to happen’ What’s going on with me?”

You’re human and subject to hindsight bias. Many people tend to remember their predictions being stronger than they originally were after the fact when they are proven right and think that things are more predictable than they actually are. Your investment record shows reality. Your mental record shows bias.

To offset this, put your predictions in writing and track your results. Mental accounting is always subject to mistakes.

Take Away: If you don’t have enough conviction to put it in writing or actually invest, you weren’t really that sure in the first place. Don’t delude yourself after the fact into thinking you saw a sure thing.

20:30 Upcoming events and wrap up -

If you would like to host my seminar or have me speak at an event, email doug@riskandrewardtv.org.

What’s for dinner?

Dinner is scallop and prawn potstickers with ginger soy dippin sauce, stuffed Napa cabbage, and pineapple upside down cake. Tasty!

In this episode

1:05 The Rear View Mirror -

The House of Representatives voted 348-79 for a bill that would punish China with trade sanctions if they didn’t allow their currency to appreciate. This began currency war alerts in the media, most notably from Brazil whose currency the Real is appreciating making it harder for them to sell exports.

The last thing we need is a trade war and to go back to protectionist type sanctions.

Take away: Willis Hawley and Reed Smoot are dead and we shouldn’t dig them up. War is always horrific and a trade war is no exception.

7:40 The Foggy Windshield -

More EU bank bailouts on the horizon. Ireland basically nationalized banks and is facing austerity measures so sever they wonder if their schools and hospitals can stay open.

Take away: Austerity sucks and is just starting to hit some countries. This isn’t done yet, so look for more trouble like this going forward.

11:42 Critical Thinking -

How to deal with bad news is always challenging, not in any small measure because of the emotions attached with it. Start with recognizing that you will likely have an emotional response to this and try not to make decisions too quickly. Sure some things need to be dealt with quickly, but most don’t. Realize it’s a process and work though it as emotions subside.

Take away: The faster you can work thorough the process, the faster you can get going again. But realize it’s a process. It might not feel good going through it, but you’ll be better off as time passes and you get to the end.

18:31 Quiz -

Last week’s questions:

• If the money supply in increased what is the likely impact on the dollar?
• What would cause gold prices to fall?
• When someone wants you to like them, what do they tell you?
• How should you save for college?

This week’s questions:

• What is the result of a trade war?
• How can acountry avoid austerity measures?
• How do you deal with bad news?
• What is the first thing you should think when you hear the words credit card?

20:22 Viewer Mail – Send your questions in directly to Doug@riskandrewardtv.org

Mark from Ann Arbor, MI writes

“Hi Doug/Brenda,

I have a question on the credit card reform act signed this February. Can you give us a summary of the law; some pros and cons for consumers and your opinion on how it will change consumer behavior in the future? Thanks.”

The credit card law signed in May 2009 helps a bit, but not nearly enough.

In general, credit cards are pure evil. They temp you into spending more than you earn and living beyond your means. Use them, but pay them off every month and the first month you can’t pay them off, stop all discretionary spending until you do.

Take Away: Money is stored work and using a credit card means you will be working in the future to pay for things you already used plus interest – HIGH interest. Credit cards are evil. Period.

24:10 Upcoming events and wrap up -

If you would like to host my seminar or have me speak at an event, email doug@riskandrewardtv.org.

What’s for dinner?

Brenda’s leaving town so no cooking for Doug this week.

In this episode

1:50 The Rear View Mirror -

The Federal Reserve opened the door to more quantitative easing, commonly called QE2, which pushed the dollar down and gold up.

Link to Fed statement

Take away: There’s no easy solution that results in a quick recovery. Look for a long slow process going forward and plan accordingly.

7:40 The Foggy Windshield -

Gold hits an all time high and looks to go higher. But in this case what goes up can come down, potential quickly.

Take away: Beware of investments in which demand is driven solely by increasing prices. When prices start falling, the process reverses, the reason to own it disappears and everyone wants out at the same time.

11:42 Critical Thinking -

There’s lots of talk about fiscal policy, spending cuts, tax cuts, and the deficit. But how much of it is wishful thinking and how much is reality? That’s the critical thinking issue this week.

Link to OMB data

Take away: You know how to get someone to like you? Tell them what they want to hear. Think critically about who’s telling you the truth and who’s telling you what you hope is the truth.

18:31 Quiz -

Last week’s questions:

• What happens when intervention stops?
• What should you be thinking when someone tells you the rewards are high and the risk is low?
• When someone tells you what they think, what should you ask?
• Which system of investing always works?

This week’s questions:

• If the money supply in increased what is the likely impact on the dollar?
• What would cause gold prices to fall?
• When someone wants you to like them, what do they tell you?
• How should you save for college?

20:22 Viewer Mail – Send your questions in directly to Doug@riskandrewardtv.org

Mark from Ann Arbor, MI writes “I’ve heard two schools of thought regarding college 529 plans. One says they are the best way to save for your child’s education because returns are tax free as long as they are used for education expenses.

The other says they are very restrictive. For example, the invest choices are limited, many have high fees and only allow changes once a year. This school (0f thought) says saving in a taxable account where you have absolute control is preferable. I tend to agree with the latter. What is your opinion?

I like your podcast and will tune in each week.”

Another option would be a Coverdale or educational account. This would allow the avoiding taxes and provide more flexibility than a 529 plan, but it’s much more limited in how much you can contribute per year.

If you have a lump sum deposit the 529 plan is the only way to get favorable tax treatment. But if your going to dribble it in year by year, the educational IRA may be the ticket. Of course, you can outside of that and have maximum flexibility, but at the price of paying taxes on the money.

Take Away: Find the option that best fits your situation.

24:10 Upcoming events and wrap up -

Good progress on the websites. If you would like to host my seminar or have me speak at an event, email doug@riskandrewardtv.org.

What’s for dinner?

We’re going out this week. Too busy to cook!

In this episode

1:10 The Rear View Mirror -

Japan intervened to slow the rise of their currency. The Yen hit 15 year highs against the dollar before the intervention into the market reversed it rise.

Take away: Surprise moves can stop a trend and shock markets. But if the underlying reasons why the trends existed still persist, then when the surprise wears off and the intervention stops, the trend will revert back, perhaps sharply.

4:03 The Foggy Windshield -

Harrisburg, PA needed state help to make loan payments on it’s general obligation debt and it has already defaulted on a the debt of an incinerator project. This is just another sign of potential muni-bond trouble on the horizon.

Take away: Muni bonds may offer higher rates of return, but risk is related to reward. If the reward is high, the risk is high as well. Invest accordingly.

7:20 Critical Thinking -

A recent article said that the American stock market (S&P 500) was one of the worst places to put money over the last decade, therefore is positioned to be the best investment over the next decade. But they gave no other reasoning and in isolation this conclusion lacks evidence. Clearly some markets have been down for more than one decade, ie. Japan.

Take away: Always seek the underlying reasoning behind the conclusion. Ask “Why do they think that way?” and analyze their reasoning. There is no way to tell if you agree or not unless you understand their reasoning and logic.

10:41 Quiz -

Last week’s questions:

• What prices were rising according to the beige book?
• What’s likely to happen to gas prices in the near term?
• Why should you follow the money?
• When will get back to full employment?

This week’s questions:

• What happens when intervention stops?
• What should you be thinking when someone tells you the rewards are high and the risk is low?
• When someone tells you what they think, what should you ask?
• Which system of investing always works?

13:05 Viewer Mail – Send your questions in directly to Doug@riskandrewardtv.org

Mark writes in “Hi Doug, I enjoy your podcast. Can you give me your opinion on active vs passive mutual fund investing. Thanks”

Active is more risky and studies show that in general it underperforms passive management. However, passive management won’t ever beat the benchmark. So there’s no easy answer here. Also, consider individual security selection as that has the best chance of all, especially after taxes and fees.

Take Away: There is no set it and forget it strategy that works all the time. It’s your money. Pay attention to it.

16:14 Upcoming events and wrap up -

Way too busy…but I can fit you in going forward. If you would like to host my seminar or have me speak at an event, email doug@riskandrewardtv.org.

What’s for dinner?

Empanadas, braised short ribs with bok choy, and birthday cake for a friend.

In this episode

1:12 The Rear View Mirror -

Beige book is released. You can find it HERE

Take away: The Beige book provides a solid overview of what’s going on in the economy. It only comes out 8 times a year so it’s a great summary for busy people.

5:13 The Foggy Windshield -

Good news on fuel prices. High supply and low demand mean lower prices.

Article in the Wall St. Journal

Take away: When you see data that says worst since 1945, or highest in 29 years, pay attention. It isn’t going to stay that way for long.

8:21 Critical Thinking -

Follow the money. Good people push bad products all the time. They are looking out for themselves. You need to look out for yourself and find out how they make their money before you give them any of yours.

Take away: When making a decision, put yourself in the other persons shoes and always consider what they are getting out of the deal.

10:39 Quiz -

Last week’s questions:

• What is the main concern with slow economic growth?
• What data would you watch to see if a firm has credit problems?
• Why shouldn’t you just ignore all rumors?
• Why can’t the Treasury just keep on spending?

This week’s questions:

• What prices were rising according to the beige book?
• What’s likely to happen to gas prices in the near term?
• Why should you follow the money?
• When will get back to full employment?

13:32 Viewer Mail – Send your questions in directly to Doug@riskandrewardtv.org

When will we get back to high levels of employment. Since May 2006 we lost 7,000,000 jobs and 6,000,000 people left the workforce. To get back to May 2006 levels, we need a gain of 216,000 a month, plus another 150,000 to keep up with new people entering the work force for a total of 366,000 per month for 5 years. (Rounded numbers obviously)

Currently we are still losing jobs. So it’s going to be a while until we see a 4.x% level of unemployment. Here’s the BLS data

Take Away: Doing some math to find a realistic picture of the future may not feel very good at times, but it can really help you make good decisions about what to do in the future.

17:58 Upcoming events and wrap up -

Still way too busy! But I can fit you in going forward. If you would like to host my seminar or have me speak at an event, email doug@riskandrewardtv.org.

What’s for dinner?

Cheviche, Stuffed Leg of lamb with a rosemary plum coulis, and lemon cake (cake brought by others – that part I could have done better. But the Lamb was a hit!)